Release from 22.01.2025

Team Performances vs. “Top-7” and “Bottom-6” and a Look into the Crystal Ball

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As the win2day ICE Hockey League regular season enters its critical phase, the battles for quarterfinal spots and pre-playoff qualification are heating up. With 57 games remaining in the regular season, a total of 171 points are still up for grabs. An analysis based on statistics sheds light on how teams perform against opponents from the upper and lower halves of the standings. This also provides a glimpse into a potential final standings table—a "look into the crystal ball." Notably, EC Red Bull Salzburg and Migross Supermercati Asiago stand out as the only teams performing better against top teams than against teams from the lower half of the table. While the Black Wings Linz make very few mistakes, defending champions EC Red Bull Salzburg surprisingly stumble against seemingly weaker opponents. Another intriguing observation: According to this model, the top four teams will end the regular season within just one point of each other.

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Salzburg and Asiago Surprise with Unorthodox Performance | Defending Champs Struggle Against Underdogs
EC Red Bull Salzburg and Migross Supermercati Asiago are outliers in the win2day ICE Hockey League. While most teams understandably perform better against teams ranked 8-13, Salzburg and Asiago earn more points—both absolutely and on average—against the league’s top seven teams. Salzburg averages 1.95 points per game against a top team, the highest in the league, but only 1.89 points against “Bottom-6” teams. In fact, against the lower half of the table, Salzburg ranks only eighth league-wide—a noticeable weakness in games where they are favored. Asiago, meanwhile, earns 0.81 points against the “Top-7,” slightly higher than their 0.74 points against “Bottom-6” teams.

Linz Shines with Maximum Efficiency
The Steinbach Black Wings Linz are the most efficient team against the “Bottom-6.” Averaging 2.39 points per game, the Upper Austrians comfortably lead this category, making the fewest missteps against weaker opponents. Bozen (2.32) and Graz (2.30) follow closely behind.

Fehérvár: Consistency at a High Level
Table leaders Hydro Fehérvár AV19 exhibit stability: they earn 1.85 points per game against top teams, only slightly behind Salzburg’s league-best figure. Against teams from the lower half, they achieve 2.10 points per game, ranking seventh in this category. This minor blemish slightly mars an otherwise impressive season from the league leaders.

Vorarlberg and Innsbruck: Extreme Performance Gaps
The Pioneers Vorarlberg show the largest discrepancies in performance: they earn just 0.50 points per game against top teams but a notable 1.76 points against “Bottom-6” opponents. With a 1.26-point difference, their performance is most influenced by the opponent's ranking. The only team earning fewer points against top teams is HC TIWAG Innsbruck, with just 0.39 points per game. Their total of nine points against the league’s top half highlights their struggles against stronger opponents.



Prediction: Possible Final Regular Season Standings
To predict the final standings, the teams’ average points per game against “Top-7” and “Bottom-6” opponents were applied to their remaining games. Here are the model's results:

  • Four-Way Battle for the Regular Season Title

According to the model, Salzburg, KAC, and Fehérvár will finish the regular season tied with 95 points. Just one point behind, HCB Südtirol Alperia lurks in contention. This thrilling four-way battle for the “Regular Season Champion” title seems destined to go down to the final round.

  • Fight for Direct Quarterfinal Spots

The EC iDM Wärmepumpen VSV appears to have the slimmest chance of direct qualification. According to the calculations, they will fall four points short of the Graz99ers (6th place) and eight points behind Linz (5th place).

  • Pre-Playoff Race

The Pioneers Vorarlberg are projected to miss the top-10 by 11 points. The reason: they face six games against top-half teams and only three against “Bottom-6” opponents in their remaining schedule.

Form Could Shake Up Projections
These forecasts are based purely on statistics and do not account for current form. Noteworthy trends include EC-KAC’s strong finish to the regular season, with eight wins in their last ten games, making them the league’s hottest team. This momentum could help them emerge victorious in the four-way battle. Similarly, the Pioneers Vorarlberg, with seven wins in their last ten games (second-best in the league), could spring surprises in the pre-playoff race.